紀要論文

中国の不動産バブルと金融リスク : Dynamic Spatial Dubin Modelに基づいた実証研究

China's Housing Price Bubble and Financial Risks : Based on the Empirical Test of the Dynamic Spatial Dubin Model (DSDM)

jpn

00229741

https://doi.org/10.15002/00025164

法政大学経済学部学会

89

2

617

671

2022-03-20

Version of Record

河村哲二教授退職記念号

The explosive growth of regional housing prices in China has led to the rapid accumulation of housing bubbles, and the potential financial risks caused by the risk of the bubble have become an area of concern for the Chinese government. This paper analyzes the direct impact and spatial spillover effects of housing bubbles on the regional financial risks in China. The research found that: (1) From 2006 to 2019, the financial risks generally appeared to be declining and then began to gyrate up. The regional financial risks are spatially significantly positively correlated, and the level of financial risks in 2019 is higher than the level during the financial crisis. (2) Since 2006, the regional housing bubble in China has shown a fluctuating upward trend. The level of the housing bubble has shown a "stepped" spatial distribution form in which the eastern region is higher than the national level, and the northeastern region is higher than the central and western regions. (3) The key factor giving rise to the housing bubble is the continuous rise in housing price, and the housing bubble has a spatial spillover effect on financial risks. (4) During the post-financial crisis period and under different debt ratios, the direct impact and the spatial spillover effects remain stable. (5) The continued tightening of macroeconomic policies after 2016 significantly suppressed the direct impact and the spatial spillover effects. Therefore, this paper proposes maintaining the stickiness of the continuous tightening of macro-control policies, formulating "inter-regional linkage" macro-control policies, and improving the pre-and post-control policies for preventing real estate financial risks. This paper also provides new empirical evidence for the relationship between the housing bubble and financial risks and provides an empirical basis and decision-making reference for implementing tighter macro-control policies to curb real estate financial risks.

Article

AN00071028