紀要論文

センサス詳細地域集計値にみる青森県の人口移動特性 : 負の2項分布モデルを用いて

An Internal Migration Analysis of the Municipality Level Data of Aomori Prefecture based on the National Population Census: Applying the Negative Binomial Regression Model

jpn

00229741

https://doi.org/10.15002/00014561

法政大学経済学部学会

85

2

345

392

2018-03-23

Version of Record

森博美教授退職記念号

This research verifies socio-demographic changes at the municipality level in Aomori Prefecture by analyzing the causal relation between sociodemographic change and employment rates or industrial structures. We construct an origin-destination migration data matrix from the national population census of Japan and apply a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model to the migration data. The dependence variables are in three units; the frequency of moving-out to other prefectures from Aomori Prefecture, the frequency of moving-in to Aomori Prefecture from other prefectures, and the frequency of moving-in and -out at the municipality level within Aomori Prefecture. The independence variables are the distances moved and their square values, the point in time of the survey, the presence of public utilities, the logarithm of population size, employment rates, and industrial structure. The influence of both industrial structure（the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, in particular）and the employment rates on internal migration can be seen when one uses this model-based approach as it controls the other effects which strongly affect internal migration.

Article

AN00071028